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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 37
San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14
What Actually Happened
(12:35) 46-A.Morris left guard to KC 35 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+1.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.49 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.94 EP
KICK
+0.13 EP
- 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
