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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 41-K.Smith right guard to MIA 1 for no gain (56-D.Godchaux, 93-A.Spence). Penalty on MIA-50-A.Branch, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on LV-76-J.Feliciano, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model