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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(8:16) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 25 yards to MIA 30, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-25-E.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model