4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 11

Denver Broncos 14 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Butt.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.51 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP