Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 66

Denver Broncos 14 – Baltimore Ravens 20

(13:56) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 55 yards to BAL 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-T.White to BAL 18 for 7 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.34 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model