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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 14 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 42 yards to BAL 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-T.White to BAL 28 for 4 yards (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP