Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 89

Denver Broncos 14 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(12:26) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 41 yards to BAL 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-40-K.Bierria.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.54 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model