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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(13:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.97 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model