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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 6-M.Wile punts 31 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-47-K.McDermott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model