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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model