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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to MIN 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model