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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 30-C.Ham (23-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model