4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 6-M.Wile punts 60 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 14-R.McCloud to BUF 31 for 13 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model