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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to MIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-58-M.Milano.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -1.44 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model