Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Buffalo Bills 27

(4:51) 6-M.Wile punts 70 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-24-H.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.51 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model