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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 73

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 1-M.King punts 51 yards to LV 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 82-J.Nelson ran ob at LV 29 for 7 yards (35-Dy.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP