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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 1-M.King punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP