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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 5-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to DEN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model