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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 1-M.King punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-J.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model