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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 41-K.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model