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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 21

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.27 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model