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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to DEN 36, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.30 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP