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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 6-M.Nugent 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model