Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(7:33) 6-M.Wile punt is BLOCKED by 81-G.Allison, Center-47-K.McDermott, RECOVERED by GB-37-J.Jackson at MIN -1. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model