4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 26 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. Penalty on MIN-94-J.Johnson, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.80 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model