Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(3:32) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to MIN 29, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-A.Morrison.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.50 EP
63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model