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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.52 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model