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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 7-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.57 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model