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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP