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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 23

New York Jets 9 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model