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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 4, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -3.33 EP
KICK -2.14 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model