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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 59

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model