Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(7:53) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to LAC 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 89-J.Jones to LAC 39 for 6 yards (82-L.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model