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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 6-C.Sturgis 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model