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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to BUF 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model