Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 94

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to BUF 49, Center-47-M.Windt. 45-M.Murphy MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 48. 45-M.Murphy to LAC 42 for 6 yards (31-A.Phillips; 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -3.64 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.33 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 94, worth -5.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model