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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to BUF 8, Center-47-M.Windt. 45-M.Murphy MUFFS catch, recovered by BUF-26-T.Jones at BUF 0. Touchback (42-U.Nwosu). BUF-26-T.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Touchback due to penalty in end zone. T.Jones assisted to tunnel. PENALTY on LAC-42-U.Nwosu, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP