Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 86

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to LAC 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 89-J.Jones to BUF 48 for 10 yards (18-A.Holmes). PENALTY on BUF-82-L.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.16 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model