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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 89-J.Jones to LAC 19 for 1 yard (50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model