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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Kansas City Chiefs 42

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model