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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to PIT 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model