Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to KC 42, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-D.Thomas to PIT 27 for 31 yards (20-C.Sutton). FUMBLES (20-C.Sutton), and recovers at PIT 22. 13-D.Thomas to PIT 10 for 12 yards (34-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.07 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model