Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 61

Detroit Lions 27 – San Francisco 49ers 30

(:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 25-T.Riddick.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP

What Happened

59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.38 EP
41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -0.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model