Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Detroit Lions 27

(1:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DET 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.07 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -1.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model