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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model