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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 25

Detroit Lions 10 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model