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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 9

Detroit Lions 7 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(:06) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.04 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model