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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 55

Detroit Lions 7 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to SF 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP