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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model