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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to SF 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-D.Pettis to SF 37 for 12 yards (32-T.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP